Where did all the productivity in AI go?

Where did all the productivity in AI go?

The experiments say AI works. The accounting says it hasn’t. Both are right, and the reasons matter. In 2025, METR paid 16 experienced open-source developers $150 an hour to work on 246 real issues in their own mature repositories—codebases averaging over a...
The Data Center Announcement Bubble

The Data Center Announcement Bubble

When you look at the numbers you can actually find on the AI Data center buildout, you will see what I see: only a small percentage of what was promised has actually been built. And there are signs that the future reality of this buildout is facing headwinds that will...
The Reasons AI is a Bubble

The Reasons AI is a Bubble

There is currently a raging debate about data centers. There is misinformation on both sides. Yes, data centers have been around for fifty years. Yes, they are critically important to our infrastructure. However, using these facts to dismiss the sentiment against the...
The Real Reason You Can’t Find ROI in AI

The Real Reason You Can’t Find ROI in AI

It isn’t the technology. It’s what we think the technology is. Last month, I had an enlightening meeting with a very large hardware tech company — over $500 million in annual sales — to talk about AI. In the room were the head of product development and...
There Is No Easy AI Button

There Is No Easy AI Button

In the 80s and 90s, technology exploded. I was fortunate to be a young man who not only witnessed the transformation but was in the thick of it, helping design and implement systems that have changed the way we work. I have lived long enough to see the beginning of...